Latest uptade of 10 Sept. 2009
10 September PAWW.DOC
Most recent update on the subject
17 September PAWW.DOC
Weeekly update on the subject
24 September PAWW.DOC
Threat Factors for Commercial Shipping and Forecast of Pirate Activity Through 2009
Factors_Affecting_Pirate_Success_HOA.doc
The weekly update
08 October PAWW.DOC
Here we are with latest update of 15th Oct 2009
15 October PAWW.pdf
A bit late for publishing the report this time.
22 October PAWW.pdf
SOMALI pirates may now have their hands on short and medium range missiles, after the capture of an unnamed vessel laden with weapons this morning, according to private security sources with good connections in the Gulf of Aden.
Nick Davis of Britain’s Merchant Maritime Warfare Centre identified the vessel as Al Mizan, a name that does not occur on either the Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit or Equasis databases, and added that it was being unloaded while anchored off Garacad, near to Eyl.
However, the International Maritime Bureau said it could not confirm the seizure, and military sources were not available for comment.
According to a non-governmental organisation active in the region, the weapons consignment was bound for al Shabab, an Islamist militia group operating inside Somalia. The question of whether or not it has links with the pirates is controversial among specialists, with the current consensus opinion being that they do no.
Al Shabab is known to be equipped with rocket propelled grenades, but not short or medium range missiles of either surface-to-air or surface-to-surface type.
Another former military source, Graeme Gibbon Brookes, who is now managing director of Dryad Maritime Intelligence, said that he doubted whether either the pirates or the militia would have the ability to use missiles, which are too sophisticated for their needs.
“To effectively use a surface-to-surface missile, you need a launcher platform and Istar [a military acronym for ‘intelligence, surveillance, target aquisition and reconnaissance’]. It would be like you or I trying to remove someone’s appendix. The mechanics of doing it are so complicated, invariably it would fail.”
Meanwhile, Mr Davis said that Somali pirates last night mounted an unsuccessful attack on a very large crude carrier full 870 nautical miles off the Somali coast, making it the longest-range attack they have ever conducted.
Source Kite Warren & Wilson Ltd
Weekly update 18 Nov 2009
Things getting worse
18 November 09 PAWW.pdf